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目的
探讨回归分析法在科室管理决策中的应用。 方法 采用SPSS15.0软件对数据进行统计分析，指标预测采用线性回归分析。结果 经过回归分析，年份与门诊量之间的线性关系良好（F=904.8，P＜0.001），用年份来预测门诊量结果稳定，决定系数为0.995，预测未来5年门诊量将突破10万，需要新增2个诊室单元；同时，新发恶性肿瘤病例数与门诊量之间的线性关系良好（F=323.6，P＜0.001），用门诊量来预测用新发恶性肿瘤病例数结果稳定，决定系数为0.985，预计未来5年新发恶性肿瘤病例数将达到1 714例，每周需要的手术单元数从现在的7个正台增加到10个正台才能满足需求，预计2017年需要增加病房床位。结论 回归分析能对科室内部重要运营指标进行较为准确的预测,对于科室制定发展规划以及管理决策中有重大的意义。 |
| 关键词: 回归分析 门诊量 手术单元 |
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| Application of Regression Analysis in the Decision-Making of Outpatient Amout，Bed and Operation Unit in the Cancer Hospital |
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| Abstract: |
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Objective
To explore the application of regression analysis in the decision-making of department management. Method Linear regression analysis was conducted to predict indicators with SPSS 15.0. Result The outpatient capacity had a good linear relationship with year(F=904.8, P<0.001), and year showed a coefficient of determination 0.995 for predicting outpatient capacity. It is predicted that the outpatient capacity exceeded 100 000 in next 5 years and two consulting units are needed. The outpatient capacity also presented good linear relationship with new cancer cases(F=904.8, P<0.001) and can be used for prediction with a coefficient of determination 0.985. It is predicted the number of new cancer cases will reach 1 714 in next five years and surgical units will increase from 7 to 10 per week. Ward bed should be increased as well. Conclusion Precise prediction of indicators reflecting department operating can be made by regression analysis, which is of great importance in decision-making for the development and management of department. |
| Key words: regression analysis, outpatient amount,operation unit |
