| 摘要: |
| 目的 预测和分析2011—2015年我国医院就诊人次和卫生服务需求。方法 建立ARIMA（1，2，2）模型，预测我国医院就诊人次。结果 未来5年我国医院就诊人次呈增长趋势，平均每年增长9.32%。结论 要加大卫生投入，合理配置卫生资源，加快公共卫生服务体系建设，完善医疗保障体系建设，以满足人们的卫生健康需求。 |
| 关键词: ARIMA模型 医院 就诊人次 预测 |
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| Prediction of Hospital Visits in China Based on ARIMA Model |
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| Abstract: |
Objective To forecast and analyze the hospital visits and the demand of the medical and health services in China from 2011 to 2015. Method ARIMA（1，2，2）was built to predict the hospital visit. Result In the coming five years，the hospital visits in China is trending to grow by an average rate of 9.32% annually.Conclusion It is essential to increase medical input，rationalize health recourse distribution and perfect medical security system in order to satisfy people’s health need. |
| Key words: ARIMA model,hospital,visits,prediction |
